After our hopes of having flying cars in the 2010s were shattered, the world has seemingly moved on to a much more down-to-earth, but almost equally unattainable hope of going green using electric vehicles (EVs). The premise being the International Energy Agency’s ‘Net Zero’ emissions target by 2050, with the world solely dependent on clean energy. And while the world is on a narrow but achievable path for that goal, things aren’t looking very positive for the EV industry. Here’s why…

Electric vehicles, the allegedly cleaner cousins of the gasoline guzzlers, are primarily powered by batteries containing Lithium, alongside Nickel and Cobalt. However, the rising demands for the electric vehicles are driving down the global availability of Lithium, which is already speculated to face shortages by as soon as 2025. Now, the limited global reserve of Lithium, which is about 22 million tons, is expected to power about 2 billion EVs by 2050 for the world to achieve the ‘Net Zero’. Not like it is any consolation but companies like Ford and Volkswagen were sold out of EVs for 2022 even before the production began.

Moreover, it’s not just the problem of quantity of the ‘white gold’ that is concerning, but also the quality. “Only a handful of companies can produce high-quality, high-purity lithium chemical products,” according to the IEA. And the resources required to extract, purify, and ready the metal will also lead to a lot of depletion in the earth’s already scarce resources, not to mention the added emissions. This too is considering that all of the Lithium extracted directly goes to EV batteries, and not in batteries for laptops, mobiles, or to make planes or trains, etc. If aviation were a country, it would rank sixth in the world for CO2 emissions, and for the EV industry the picture isn’t looking pretty either.

But as they say, where there is a will, there is also world politics. While China enjoys the monopoly of the entire supply chain for electric vehicles and lithium-ion batteries, dealing with them in this circumstance is a major concern for the west. Their next best alternatives are Australia, the highest producer of Lithium in 2021, and Chile, the world’s largest lithium reserve. Chile, Bolivia, and Argentina form the Lithium Triangle, which just makes matters worse as they are extremely drought-prone regions.

While matters look bleak for the rise of the EVs for now, the massive interest and intent that backs the cause allows room for innovation, and frankly hope. Will the white drive out the green? Only time will tell, or Elon via his tweets.

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